Preakness Stakes 2019

No Country House, No Maximum Security, no problem, may be the rallying cry for those simply interested in betting a very competitive race. Despite the very public and controversial nature of the Kentucky Derby and the absence of both the actual and disqualified winner in the middle leg of the Triple Crown, this Preakness is still very much something to look forward to. 

Preakness Stakes 2019 Odds 

In this handicapper's opinion, the top two betting choices returning from the Derby to run in this race are bothl overbet if they stay close to their odds published after the announced lineup. Respectively, War of Will (4/1) and Improbable (5/2) seem like awful bets if they actually go to post at those prices. More on these points in a moment, but here are the latest odds for the Preakness Stakes following the May 15 post draw:

1. War of Will 5/2
2. Bourbon War 12/1
3. Warrior's Charge 12/1
4. Improbable 5/2
5. Owendale 10/1
6. Market King 30/1
7. Alwaysmining 8/1
8. Signalman 30/1
9. Bodexpress 20/1 
10. Everfast 30/1
11. Laughing Fox 20/1
12. Anothertwistafate 6/1
13. Win Win Win 15/1

Starting with the pair of aforementioned favorites, let's acknowlege the obvious. Both are returning on short rest, and save for fellow Derby contestants Bodexpress and Win Win Win, every horse in this race will bring fresher legs.

War of Will draws the rail again, and many casual bettors will overstate the importance of his now infamous trip in the Derby. A more salient point, however, may be that the Mark Casse trainee finished 8th in that race on the heels of an inexplicable 9th in the Louisiana Derby. I'm too lazy to do the research, but you'd likely have trouble finding the last Preakness winner with that type of resume. 

As for Improbable, he ran well enough in the Derby to get elevated from 5th to 4th following the chaotic disqualification, but let's not overlook the fact that this colt is 0 for 3 this year and hasn't shown much improvement from his stellar juvenile form. He's strictly a play-against for me in this race considering the short price. We must also consider that Preakness Stakes Betting odds tend to attract the most casual of horse bettors, most of whom will simply throw $2 at the Bob Baffert-trained favorite. Improbable is sure to be an unappealing price. 

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Unlocking the value

Now for the fun stuff.

Warriors Charge (12/1) took a big step forward last out at Oaklawn and should find himself on the early lead in this race. If ready to take another step forward, there is no reason this guy can't take the field a long, long way. His Beyer Speed Figure from the April 12 race at Oaklawn was a respectable 97 - a figure only Improbable and Owendale have bettered in any race, both posting a single 98. 

Owendale, who shares a barn with Warriors Charge, will provide the closing punch for Brad Cox's unheralded, but potentially live Preakness duo. At 10/1 on the morning line, we've already noted that Owendale has a career co-best Beyer Speed Figure among the Preakness contenders.

His Lexington Stakes victory was a thing of beauty, and there seems like more could be left in the tank. Owendale came back with a bullet workout May 11 at Churchill Downs, covering five furlongs in a shade of 59 seconds flat - the fastest of 31 workers at that distance. He seems to be thriving physically and could be a handful down the lane. I fully expect both Cox runners to compete every step of the way at generous odds. 

Here are some other thoughts when considering value: 

• Bodexpress ran huge behind Maximum Security in the Florida Derby and probably hated the track conditions on Derby Day explaining his non-performance. He looks appealing at 20/1 
• Anothertwistafate needs some racing luck, but always seems to put in his run. 
• Alwaysmining likes to win races and can't be counted out

Thinking exotic

Preakness betting 2019 will offer the usual bonanza of pick 3, pick 4 and other multirace exotics, but let's focus just on the big race for the purpose of this piece. Let's talk exacta, trifecta and superfecta strategies. 

Here's the short list of horses I think are most probable to run 1-4: Warriors Charge, Owendale, Improbable, Bodexpress, Alwaysmining, and Anothertwistafate. 

Yes, that's six horses. Let's get down to the business of crafting bets. 

Exacta Strategy 

In the exacta, I rarely do so much spreading, but because I like a pair of live longshots on top in Warriors Charge and Owendale, I'll take same shots at landing the runner up. My bet will look like this: 

• 1st position: 3/,5
• 2nd position: 3,4,5, 7,9,12
• Cost = $20 for $2 base wager

Trifecta Strategy

Nothing fancy here, I'll take the same combo of runners from my exacta and add another rung. 

• 1st position: 3,5
• 2nd position: 3,4,5,7,9,12
• 3rd position: 3,4,5,7,9,12
• Cost = $20 for 50-cent base wager

Superfecta Strategy

To trim the cost of my potentially expensive super ticket, I'll do a bit more selective mixing and matching, but I'll give myself a chance to catch a messy longshot in the fourth slot by going "all." 

• 1st position: 3,5
• 2nd position: 3,4,5, 9
• 3rd position: 3,4,5,7,9,12
• 4th position: ALL 
• Cost = $24 for 10-cent base